Archive

How Active is the Insurrectionist Movement in the United States?

Volume 9 Issue 3

For decades, I have tracked political instability and insurgencies around the globe, assuming that the indicators I developed would never have relevance for the United States. The events of January 6, 2021 led me to challenge that assumption, speculating that the same dynamic might now be occurring within our borders. I decided to apply the indicators developed for foreign countries in the past to our present circumstances in the United States.

READ MORE

The Ukraine Situation: Producing Analysis Using the Five Habits of the Master Thinker

Volume 9 Issue 2

The attention of the world is focused on Ukraine. If you were an analyst supporting the National Security Council in that region, you would be generating a lot of analysis on extremely short deadlines. In this month’s Analytic Insider, I review how you could leverage the Five Habits of the Master Thinker to assist you in this task.

READ MORE

The 2022 Mid-Term Elections: Another Surprise?

Volume 9 Issue 1

But What If? the electoral results defy all predictions (as happened in 2016 when Donald Trump won the presidency) and the Democrats retain control? How could we explain how everyone totally missed this call? The focus of this article is to think outside the box and explore how such an unlikely scenario could come about. What are the key drivers that could spur a dramatically different election outcome with the Democrats retaining power? What are the indicators that would signal that such an unlikely scenario is beginning to unfold?

 


READ MORE

Is Western Civilization Confronting a Global Inflection Point?

Volume 8 Issue 11

Recently, while on vacation in Iceland, my health deteriorated severely. I was hospitalized for 18 days suffering from a rare form of vasculitis. During this time, I observed five best practices that should be emulated by every medical system.

 


READ MORE

Best Practices in Medicine: Observations from Iceland

Volume 8 Issue 10

Recently, while on vacation in Iceland, my health deteriorated severely. I was hospitalized for 18 days suffering from a rare form of vasculitis. During this time, I observed five best practices that should be emulated by every medical system.

 


READ MORE

The Case of Kabul: Foresight and the Hindsight Bias Trap

Volume 8 Issue 9

A review of how Foresight and Hindsight analytic processes are both used – with varying success– to assess the chaotic evacuation of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan.


READ MORE

Rethinking the Impact of Global Climate Change: Challenge Your Assumptions

Volume 8 Issue 8

The release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on 9 August should cause many of us to rethink some of our key assumptions.

 


READ MORE

Understanding Complex Events

Volume 8 Issue 7

In this Analytic Insider, I use a technique—Key Drivers Analysis—to demonstrate the use of structured analysis to make sense of complex situations.

 


READ MORE

How the Intelligence Enterprise Can Support Constructive Solutions

Volume 8 Issue 6

In this final article in the series, I address the potential role that the intelligence community and analysts in particular can play in supporting the process of building constructive narratives. Hopefully, over time a collaborative and concerted effort to find positive solutions can supplant the destructive rhetoric that has undermined our democratic institutions in recent years.


READ MORE

Moving Toward Constructive Solutions

Volume 8 Issue 5

In my previous Analytic Insider, we discussed whether America is likely to become increasingly polarized or could turn the corner and start forging constructive solutions to the many existential threats we now confront as a nation. We all expect that this will prove a major challenge for the US Congress, but the more critical question is whether Americans can begin the process of engaging in constructive dialogues.

READ MORE
Globalytica