What are your personal predictions in the New Year? Use Indicators.
Randy Pherson CEO, Globalytica
2016 was a year of surprises for many of us, including the Brexit vote, election of Donald Trump as US President, the impact of Fake News, and a barrage of terrorist attacks. In the wake of these events, we can’t help but wonder what the coming year will bring.
What do you THINK will happen? Will your hopes be realized or your fears be confirmed? When you make New Year’s resolutions, you write them down so you can remember exactly what you thought on January 1. Let’s see how accurate your predictions are by writing down this week what you expect the next six months will bring, and then track what actually happens.
Baseline your expectations by making a list of things (observable events or Indicators) that you believe are likely to happen over the next six months. For example:
- The interest rates will rise by 1 percent by 30 April.
- All of President Trump’s Cabinet appointments will be confirmed.
- Two senior Trump appointments will leave office in three months.
- Marie Le Pen will win the first round of the 2017 French presidential election on 23 April but lose the run-off election on 7 May.
Make a list of five Indicators with five positive outcomes (what you hope will happen) in the next six months. Next, make a list of five Indicators(observable events) with five negative outcomes (what you are afraid will happen). At the beginning of every month, go back and see which indicators came true and which did not. If most or all of your Indicators came true, more people should be listening to you. If you were wrong, then go back and challenge some of the key assumptions you are making today.
Make your lists this week—it will only take a few minutes. Review them on 1 February; are they still valid? Review them again on 1 March and on 1 April, etc. Compare your projections to what actually is happening. I can guarantee that several months from now you will be surprised by what you wrote down in early January!
To learn more about how to use Indicators, check out our classes or order your copy of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, 2nd ed.
New Year’s Resolution: sharpen your analytic skills in 2017!
Globalytica is launching its new analytic training program with the two-week online course: Critical Thinking Fundamentals from February 7-21. This course introduces learners to the most common cognitive biases and intuitive traps, various critical thinking processes and structured analytic techniques, and how to use these techniques in the production process. 25% off registration with code: New25Insider
Click here for details.
Globalytica wishes our worldwide network of clients and partners a very Happy New Year! To date, nearly 30 government organizations and universities, a dozen Fortune 100 companies, and several global banks have tapped our expertise in building analytic cultures. In 2016, Globalytica conducted Strategic Foresight Analysis workshops around the globe. We have taught courses in universities in the US, Spain, Germany, Denmark and the UK. Our book sales continue to grow; we reached 22 countries last year, including Greenland, Singapore, Brazil, Austria, Haiti and New Zealand. Globalytica looks forward to expanding our outreach even more in 2017.