Forecasting the Impact of the Trump Administration, Part II
Volume 4 Issue 8
In uncertain times, Indicators offer a structured way to anticipate how the future will unfold. They also protect you against Hindsight Bias because they provide an initial, objective baseline from which to begin your analysis. Developing a list of Indicators is the first step in the process; tracking them over time releases their true power.
Why Should People Believe What I Say?
Volume 4 Issue 7
In today’s world of 24/7 news, too many of us are willing to offer an opinion before knowing the hard facts. In cognitive psychology, this is called coming to Premature Closure. Other pitfalls include the Vividness Bias and Relying on First Impressions (See Pherson and Pherson’s Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence for descriptions of these biases and intuitive traps.)
Are you Afraid to Engage your Friends in a Political Discussion Anymore?
Volume 4 Issue 6
Summer is the season for barbeques and poolside gatherings with family and friends, but some of us may be concerned that unintended arguments may erupt at these events. Have you ever found yourself part of a conversation that heated up quickly and accomplished nothing? Have you ever witnessed how a divisive comment sparked conflict at a family gathering? Do you feel as if it is becoming impossible—even dangerous—to talk about politics or current events in mixed company? You are not alone! The art of reasoned dialogue seems to be dying, and we need help finding a way to revive it.
How Can I Make a Good Decision? Use the Decision Matrix
Volume 4 Issue 5
June is here – for many, it marks the end of a college career and preparation for the “real world.” Looming decisions can overwhelm a new graduate – or any of us. For example, many new graduates must decide: Which job should I seek or choose? Which new housing arrangement works best for me? Should I drive, bicycle, or take public transport to work? Other key decisions many of us may need to make include: Where should we go for our vacation? What options are best for my elderly parents? Using a Decision Matrix will help you, the decision maker, weigh your options analytically.
Who Best Forecast the Impact of the Trump Administration in the First 100 Days? Use Indicators to Evaluate
Volume 4 Issue 4
Indicators are a pre-established set of observable phenomena that are reviewed periodically to track developments, identify trends, and warn of unanticipated change.
How Tight is Trump with Russia? Use Analysis of Competing Hypotheses to Decide
Volume 4 Issue 3
With FBI Director James Comey’s recent testimony confirming an active FBI investigation into whether associates of President Trump were in contact with Moscow, allegations continue to swirl around the true nature of the President’s relationship with Russia.
Identifying Fake News: Use Deception Detection Techniques
Volume 4 Issue 2
It is becoming harder and harder to know what you can believe on the news. Advances in information technology and the explosion of social media postings have created a news environment that is exceptionally easy to exploit for both profit and political advantage.
How Does Russia Target Americans? Use Red Hat Analysis
Volume 4 Issue 1
Much has been asserted—and little yet proven—about alleged Russian efforts to develop both witting and unwitting agents of influence and collaboration in the United States. If you were Russia, what strategies would you employ? How would you evaluate your prospects for success? Try using Red Hat Analysis to answer these questions.
What are your personal predictions in the New Year? Use Indicators.
New Year's Edition January 2017
2016 was a year of surprises for many of us, including the Brexit vote, election of Donald Trump as US President, the impact of Fake News, and a barrage of terrorist attacks. In the wake of these events, we can’t help but wonder what the coming year will bring.
Briefing Officials with Fixed Mindsets
Volume 3 Issue 11
The primary task of an analyst is to help policymakers and other decisionmakers make good decisions based on the best available information and most compelling logic. This task becomes much more challenging, however, when the recipient of the analysis bases his or her decisions on pre-established, firmly held, and often immutable precepts or world views. Such individuals are usually more interested in imposing their view on the world—or on the environment in which they operate—rather than trying to better understand it. They see data as useful ammunition they can cite to demonstrate the correctness of their approach or predispositions. Information that contradicts their view is usually quickly dismissed or simply ignored.