Archive

Conspiracy Theories: How to Respond

Volume 5 Issue 4

Conspiracy theories have been gaining publicity in recent months. When we see them in a tweet or receive an email forwarded from a “dear uncle,” most of us dismiss them as uninformed and irrelevant. But what do you do if someone you know and respect cites and uses one in a discussion with you to buttress his or her point of view?


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Deciphering Russian Intentions

Volume 5 Issue 3

Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya’s statement during an April 2018 interview with NBC’s Richard Engel that she was an “informant” for Yuri Chaika, Russia’s State Prosecutor, raises questions about her role in a meeting with senior campaign officials in Trump Tower in Manhattan in June 2016. Her comments contradict previous public statements that she was acting only in the capacity of a private attorney.


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Don’t Be Duped!

Volume 5 Issue 2

Only days after the Parkland, Florida school shooting, Russian bots began sending messages on social media designed to enflame the debate over gun control. Russians also actively exploited the power of social media to shape people’s perceptions during the 2016 US Presidential campaign, as detailed in the indictment issued by the Mueller investigation targeting 13 Russian operatives.


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Assessing the Impact of the Trump Administration at the One-Year Mark

Volume 5 Issue 1

In times of conflict and uncertainty, Indicators protect you against Hindsight Bias and Confirmation Bias because they provide an objective baseline from which to begin—and continue to evaluate the accuracy of—your analysis. Developing a list of Indicators is only the first step; tracking them periodically over time uncovers their true value.


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Make Sure Good Ideas are Heard

Volume 4 Issue 11

Do you ever feel like you don’t get enough credit for your good ideas? Do you occasionally make decisions before getting input from everyone in the group? The holidays are a great time to practice some techniques to help you avoid these problems.


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Forecasting the Impact of the Trump Administration, Part III

Volume 4 Issue 10

In uncertain times, Indicators protect you against Hindsight Bias because they provide an initial, objective baseline from which to begin your analysis. Developing a list of Indicators is the first step in the process; tracking them over time releases their true power.


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What Can We Learn from Las Vegas?

Volume 4 Issue 9

The recent tragedy in Las Vegas provides a clear example of the need for all of us to challenge our assumptions. The commendable efforts by local first-responder organizations also demonstrates the value of using foresight techniques to build more resilience in preparing for the unexpected or worst-case scenarios.


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Forecasting the Impact of the Trump Administration, Part II

Volume 4 Issue 8

In uncertain times, Indicators offer a structured way to anticipate how the future will unfold. They also protect you against Hindsight Bias because they provide an initial, objective baseline from which to begin your analysis. Developing a list of Indicators is the first step in the process; tracking them over time releases their true power.


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Why Should People Believe What I Say?

Volume 4 Issue 7

In today’s world of 24/7 news, too many of us are willing to offer an opinion before knowing the hard facts. In cognitive psychology, this is called coming to Premature Closure. Other pitfalls include the Vividness Bias and Relying on First Impressions (See Pherson and Pherson’s Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence for descriptions of these biases and intuitive traps.)


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Are you Afraid to Engage your Friends in a Political Discussion Anymore?

Volume 4 Issue 6

Summer is the season for barbeques and poolside gatherings with family and friends, but some of us may be concerned that unintended arguments may erupt at these events. Have you ever found yourself part of a conversation that heated up quickly and accomplished nothing? Have you ever witnessed how a divisive comment sparked conflict at a family gathering? Do you feel as if it is becoming impossible—even dangerous—to talk about politics or current events in mixed company? You are not alone! The art of reasoned dialogue seems to be dying, and we need help finding a way to revive it.


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