The Case of Kabul: Foresight and the Hindsight Bias Trap

Volume 8 Issue 9

A review of how Foresight and Hindsight analytic processes are both used – with varying success– to assess the chaotic evacuation of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan.


Rethinking the Impact of Global Climate Change: Challenge Your Assumptions

Volume 8 Issue 8

The release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on 9 August should cause many of us to rethink some of our key assumptions.



Understanding Complex Events

Volume 8 Issue 7

In this Analytic Insider, I use a technique—Key Drivers Analysis—to demonstrate the use of structured analysis to make sense of complex situations.



How the Intelligence Enterprise Can Support Constructive Solutions

Volume 8 Issue 6

In this final article in the series, I address the potential role that the intelligence community and analysts in particular can play in supporting the process of building constructive narratives. Hopefully, over time a collaborative and concerted effort to find positive solutions can supplant the destructive rhetoric that has undermined our democratic institutions in recent years.


Moving Toward Constructive Solutions

Volume 8 Issue 5

In my previous Analytic Insider, we discussed whether America is likely to become increasingly polarized or could turn the corner and start forging constructive solutions to the many existential threats we now confront as a nation. We all expect that this will prove a major challenge for the US Congress, but the more critical question is whether Americans can begin the process of engaging in constructive dialogues.


America is Polarized: Truth or Propaganda?

Volume 8 Issue 4

Congress has failed to address many key public policy concerns because polarization—and more recently obstructionism—places mounting obstacles to compromise and collaboration. Are we headed down a slippery slope toward more division and crass power politics or are we at a turning point where popular support is growing for forging constructive solutions to our nation’s problems?


Is There an Active Insurrectionist Movement in the United States?

Volume 8 Issue 3

Applying this time-proven “indicators yardstick” to current political dynamics in this country strongly suggests that an incipient insurgency—or in today’s parlance, an insurrectionist movement—is beginning to emerge in the United States.



Insurrection: From Foreign Threat to Domestic Problem

Volume 8 Issue 2

The events of 6 January, 2021, may have catapulted the United States into a new reality. Historically, most illicit activity in the United States has been defined by categories such as criminal behavior, hate crimes, and terrorism. We now may need to focus more attention on a fourth category: Insurrection.



Making America Work Again: Using a Constructionist Approach to Move Forward

Volume 8 Issue 1

Continuing polarization is expected by many, guaranteeing at least two more years of gridlock on the Hill. I do not believe, however, that this is inevitable. Gridlock can be avoided if a new, Constructionist focus of power emerges in both houses of Congress.



Structuring the Debate Over COVID

Volume 7 Issue 6

The debate over how to manage the COVID crisis has surfaced two highly dissimilar perspectives:

  • Some argue that we must follow the guidance of scientists to minimize deaths.
  • Others say the greater threat is to close down the economy.

The current focus of this debate is whether and how to open schools. Instead of viewing this dilemma as “us vs. them,” concerned citizens should frame the debate as a tension between two key drivers. When these drivers are arrayed on a 2×2 matrix, four scenarios can be constructed that better represent what choices are available to find an optimal resolution to the problem.